I have a confession to make…this was not exactly a Nostradamus prediction found in one of his famous quatrains. It was an analysts prediction. Industry analyst Michael Pachter to be exact. In his best Nostradamus like trance, Pachter predicts that the next generation consoles will not launch until after 2013.
“We do not expect a ‘new’ console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” he wrote. “We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all.”
“Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”
“We therefore think it is likely that the ‘next’ generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6–10 percent for another five years.”
Very interesting and very likely that he may be correct given the current economic climate. It doesn’t take a psychic to tell anyone that we may have to wait a bit longer to enjoy the fruits of the industries labor when it comes to next gen tech. And that’s perfectly fine with me. I’m still thoroughly enjoying all the games in this current generation. Hopefully…we’ll all survive the 2012 apocalypse.
Source: http://www.edge-online.com/news/analyst-no-new-console-cycle-before-2013